The Application of the Gravity Model to the G7 Countries
Povzetek
V prispevku uporabimo model gravitacije za razumevanje determinant izvoznih tokov iz držav G7 v 161 partnerskih držav. V teoretičnem delu predstavimo te- oretično podlago modela in ugotovimo, da je model možno povezati z različni- mi teorijami mednarodne menjave. V empiričnem delu z metodo najmanjših kva- dratov testiramo deset ekonometričnih modelov. Osnovni model gravitacije, ki zunanjetrgovinske tokove pojasnjuje z BDP dveh držav in zračne razdalje med njunima glavnima mestoma, razširimo z vključitvijo petih opisnih spremenljivk, spremenljivke oddaljenosti in absolutne razlike v BDP na prebivalca, s katero te- stiramo veljavnost Linderjeve hipoteze nasproti veljavnosti napovedi H-O mode- la. Rezultati modelov so skladni z obstoječimi empiričnimi študijami in teoretični- mi napovedmi.
Prenosi
Literatura
Anderson, J. E. (1979). A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. American Economic Review 69 (1): 106–116.
Anderson, J. E. (2010). The Gravity Model. NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper no. 16576.
Armington, P. S. (1969). A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production. IMF Staff Papers 16 (1): 159–178. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3866403
Batra, A. (2006). India's Global Trade Potential: The Gravity Model Approach. Global Economic Review 35 (3): 327–361. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/12265080600888090
Battersby, B. & Ewing, R. (2005). International Trade Performance: The Gravity of Australia's Remoteness. Treasury Working Paper, junij 2005.
Bergstrand, J. H. (1985). The Gravity Equation in In- ternational Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics 67 (3): 474–481. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1925976
Bergstrand, J. H. (1989). The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition and the Factor-Pro- portions Theory in International Trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics 71 (1): 143–153. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1928061
Bergstrand, J. H., in P. Egger (2011). Gravity Equations and Economic Frictions in the World Economy. V: Palgrave Handbook of International Trade, ur. D. Bernhofen, R. Falvey, D. Greenaway in U. Kreickemeier. Palgrave Macmillan Publishing.
Carrillo-Tudela, C., in C. A. Li (2004). Trade Blocks and the Gravity Model: Evidence from Latin American Countries. Journal of Economic Integration 19: 667–689. http://dx.doi.org/10.11130/jei.2004.19.4.667
CEPII. (2014). Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informa- tions Internationales. Dosegljivo 3. 9. 2014 na: http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/presentation.asp?id=6.
Chaney, T. (2013). The Gravity Equation in International Trade: An Explanation. NBER Working Paper No. 19285.
Cheptea, A., A. Gohin in M. H. Bourdon (2008). Applying the gravity approach to sector trade: Who bears the trade costs? Paper prepared for the 11th GTAP Conference, Helsinki, June 2008.
Deardorff, A. V. (1998). Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World? V: The Re- gionalization of the World Economy, ur. J. A. Frankel. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Disdier, A.-C., in K. Head (2008). The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade. Review of Economics and Statistics 90 (1): 37–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/rest.90.1.37
Dixit, A. K., in J. Stiglitz (1977). Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity. The American Economic Review 67 (3): 297–308.
Eaton, J., in S. Kortum (2002). Technology, Geography, and Trade. Econometrica 70 (5): 1741–1779. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00352
El-Sayed, M. A. (2012). A Gravity Model Analysis of Egypt's Trade and Some Economic Blocks. Internatio- nal Conference on Applied Life Sciences (ICALS 2012). Turkey, Septmeber 10–12, 2012.
Evenett, S. J., in W. Keller (1998). On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation. NBER Working Paper 6529.
Feenstra, R. C., J. R. Markusen in A. K. Rose (2001). Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade. Canadian Journal of Economics 34 (2): 430–447. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/0008-4085.00082
Filippini, C., in V. Molini (2003). The determinants of East Asian trade flows: a gravity equation approach. Journal of Asian Economics 14 (5): 695–711. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2003.10.001
Frankel, J. A., in A. Rose (2002). An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income. Quarterly Journal of Economics 117 (2): 437–466. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/003355302753650292
Harrigan, J. (2002). Specialization and the Volume of Trade: Do the Data Obey the Laws? NBER Working Paper 8675, december 2001.
Head, K. (2003). Gravity for Beginners. University of British Columbia, Faculty of Commerce.
Heckscher, E. (1919). The effect of foreign trade on the distribution of income. Ekonomisk Tidskriff, 497–512. Prevedeno kot 13. poglavje (str. 272–300) v: Readings in the Theory of International Trade (1949). American Economic Association, Philadelphia: Blakiston.
Helpman, E., in P. Krugman (1985). Market Structure and International Trade. MIT Press.
Helpman, E. (1987). Imperfect competition and interna- tional trade: Evidence from fourteen industrial countries. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 1: 62–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0889-1583(87)90027-X
Isard, W. (1954). Location theory and trade theory: Short-run analysis. Quarterly Journal of Economics 68 (2): 305–320. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1884452
Kepaptsoglou, K., M. G. Karlaftis in D. Tsamboulas (2010). The Gravity Model Specification for Modeling International Trade Flows and Free Trade Agreement Effects: A 10-Year Review of Empirical Studies. The Open Economics Journal 3: 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.2174/1874919401003010001
Keum, K. (2008). Tourism flows and trade theory: a panel data analysis with the gravity model. The Annals of Regional Science 44 (3): 541–557. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00168-008-0275-2
Kimura, F., in H.-H. Lee (2006). The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services. Review of World Economics 142 (1): 92–121. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/ s10290-006-0058-8
Krugman, P. (1991). Increasing returns and economic geography. Journal of Political Economy 99 (3): 483–499. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261763
Krugman, P. (1995). Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 26 (1): 327–377. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2534577
Krugman, P., M. Obstfeld in M. Melitz (2012). Interna- tional Economics: Theory and Policy (9. izdaja). Boston: Pearson/Addison Wesley.
Leamer, E. E., in J. Levinsohn (1994). International Trade Theory: The Evidence. NBER Working Paper 4940.
Linder, S. B. (1961). An Essay on Trade and Transformati- on. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Linder, S. B. (1961). An Essay on Trade and Transformati- on. Stockholm: Almqvist and Wiksell.
Márquez-Ramos, L. (2007). Understanding the Deter- minants of International Trade in African Countries: An Empirical Analysis for Ghana and South Africa. CESifo Venice Summer Institute.
Mayer, T., in S. Zignago (2011). Notes on CEPII's distances measures: the GeoDist Database. CEPII Working Paper 2011–25.
Mele, M., in P. A. Baistrocchi (2012). A Critique of the Gravitational Model in Estimating the Determinants of Trade Flows. International Journal of Business and Commerce 2 (1): 13–23.
Ohlin, B. (1933). Interregional and International Trade. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1967.
Pöyhönen, P. (1963). A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade Between Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 90 (1963): 93–99.
Rahman, M. M. (2009). The Determinants of Bangla- desh’s Imports: A Gravity Model Analysis Under Panel Data. Australian Conference of Economists 2009 Paper, October 12.
Tinbergen, J. (1962). An Analysis of World Trade Flows. V: Shaping the World Economy, ur. J. Tinbergen. New York, NY: Twentieth Century Fund.
United Nations (2014). UN Comtrade Database. Dosegljivo 2. 9. 2014 na: http://comtrade.un.org/data/.
Wang, C., Y. Wei, in X. Liu (2010). Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows in OECD Countries: Evidence from Gravity Panel Data Models. The World Economy 33 (7): 894–915. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01245.x
World Bank (2014a). GDP Ranking. Dosegljivo 29. 11. 2014 na: http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/GDP-ranking-table.
World Bank (2014b). World Development Indicators. Dosegljivo 1. 9. 2014 na: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator?display=default.
