DINAMIKA GIBANJA CEN ENERGENTOV IN OCENA DINAMIKE GIBANJA CEN PREMOGA Z METODO GLAVNIH KOMPONENT
Povzetek
Povpraševanju po energetskih virov narašēa kljub prizadevanjem za izboljšanje energetske uēinkovitosti. Premog predstavlja eno ēetrtino skupne porabe primarne energije proizvodnje. Nadaljnjo rabo premoga je odvisna od ukre povza varovanje okolja in Kjotskega protokola. Cena premoga je vplivalna ceno proizvodnje premoga ter pripravi tehnologij, insicerstroški prevoza, okoljska zakonodaja, je cenaza kurjenje premoga tehnologij, je bila cena plina, preēišēevanja, je cena dovoljenja ali emisijo CO2 kuponi, porabe, cen druge vire energije (zemeljski plin in nafto) in liberalizacijo elektro energetskega trga. Mio ceniti vpliv cen in uporabi druge vire energije, okoljske ukrepe, za energetsko uēinkovitost in vpliv liberalizacije trga zelektriēno energijona gibanje cen premoga. Naša ocena kaže, da, ēe se cene drugih energetskih virov in elektriēno energijo poveēuje, je cena premoga poveēa. ez uporabo drugih virov energije poveēa, in ēe je bruto uporabe industrijskih odpadkov in obnovljivih virov poveēuje, je cena premoga zmanjša. Ukrepe za varstvo okolja prispevajo k poveēanju cene premoga. Višji koliēnik energetske uēinkovitosti doloēa ceno premoga. Poleg tegajeevro(vdolarjih)ocenjenavrednostcenepremoga.
Prenosi
Literatura
Baxter, M. J., Cool, H. E. M. and Heyworth, M. P. 1990. Principal component and
correspondence analysis of compositional data: Some similarities. Journal of Applied
Statistics17:229Ͳ235.
Breēeviē,D.,Festiđ,M.,Repina,S.,Križaniē,F.,CerjakKovaēec,A.,Rojnik,E.andBuēar,A.
Analizainocenacenenergentov(Analysisandestimationofthepricesofenergy
sources).Ljubljana:IREETandEIPF.
Breusch, T. S. 1979. Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models. Australian
EconomicPapers17:334Ͳ355.
Catell, R. B. 1966. The scree test for the number of factors. Multivariate Behavioral
Research1:245Ͳ276.
Cleanenergy.2008.Aboutcoal.[http://www.cleanͲ
energy.us/facts/coal.htm#world_resources],(6.5.2008).
Dickey, A. D. and Fuller, A. W. 1979. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive
timeserieswithunitroot.JournalofAmericanStatisticalAssociation74(June):427Ͳ431.
EEX.EuropeanEnergyExchange.2008.[http://www.eex.com/en],(9.6.2008)
EIA. International Energy Outlook. Energy Information Administration. 2007. 2008.
[http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/coalnews/coalmar.html,
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/coal.html,
www.iea.org/textbase/papers/2007/jr_price_interaction.pdf],(6.5.2008).
Energy Security. 2008. Institute for the Analysis of Global Security.
[http://www.iags.org/n0524044.htm],(9.4.2008).
Energy.2008.Fotovoltaicaasthestoryofsuccess.Thegreenlightforrenewablesources
directive.[www.energetika.net],(9.4.2008).
Eurocoal.2007,2008.Euracoal'sMarketReport.[http://euracoal.be/],(19.5.2008).
Eurocoal.2007a.Euracoal'sMarketReport.
[http://euracoal.be/newsite/Euracoal_Prognos_2007_engl.pdf2007],(19.5.2008).
Eurocoal.2007b.ThefutureroleofcoalinEurope.
[http://euracoal.be/newsite/Euracoal_Prognos_2007_engl.pdf],(16.5.2008).
Eurocoal. 2008a. [www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/coalnews/metcoalpricepost.xls],
(6.5.2008).
Eurocoal.2008b.[http://euracoal.be/newsite/report.php],(19.5.2008).
Eurostatconceptsanddefinitionsdatabase.2007.
[http://circa.europa.eu/irc/dsis/coded/info/data/coded/en/Theme9.htm],(15.5.2008).
Favero, C. A., Marcellino, M. and Neglia, F. 2005. Principal components at work: The
empirical analysis of monetary policy with large datasets. Journal of Applied
Econometrics20(5):603Ͳ620.
Fuentes, M. and Godoy, S. 2005. Sovereign spread in emerging markets: a principal
component analysis. Banco Central de Chile Documentos de Trabajo. Central Bank of
Chile, working paper, no. 333. [http://www.bcentral.cl/eng/studies/workingͲ
papers/pdf/dtbc333.pdf],(17.9.2008).
Graffelman, J. and AlujaͲBanet, T. 2003: Optimal representation of supplementary
variables in biplots from principal component analysis and correspondence analysis.
BiometricalJournal45:491Ͳ509.
Harris,D.1997.Principalcomponentsanalysisofcointegratedtimeseries.Econometric
Theory13:539Ͳ557.
Hartley,P.,Medlock,K.B.andRosthal,J.2007.Therelationshipbetweencrudeoiland
naturalgas.NaturalgasinNorthAmerica:Marketsandsecurity.RiceUniversity,
Instituteforpublicpolicy.
[http://www.rice.edu/energy/publications/docs/natgas/ng_relationshipͲnov07.pdf],(10.
2008)
Kaciak, E. and Koczkodaj, W. 1989. A spreadsheet approach to principal components
analysis. Journal of Microcomputer Applications 12 (1): 281Ͳ291.
[http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~iase/publications/18/BOOK1/A3Ͳ4.pdf],(18.6.2008).
Kavalov,B.andPeteves,S.D.2007.Thefutureofcoal.DGJRC,no.22744.Institutefor
Energy.
[http://ie.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/scientific_publications/2007/EUR22744EN.pdf],
(14.5.2008).
Kucewitz, W. 2007. Electricity prices in the fuel function. GeoInvestor.
[http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199Ͳ1511163/GeoInvestorͲcomͲFloridaͲsͲ
Looming.html],(19.5.2008).