MODELIRANJE DINAMIČNIH KONFLIKTOV V ENERGETSKEM SISTEMU
Povzetek
V članku je predstavljen dinamični model konflikta. Dinamiko odnosov in relacij v modelu za zvezne sisteme opišemo z uporabo diferencialnih enačb. v nadaljevanju razvoja teorije pa model nadgradimo še z uporabo mehke logike. Velik napredek na tem področju sta opravili dve ločeni raziskovalni skupini. Gottman, Murray in ostali, [1], so se ukvarjali z odnosi med zakoncema, kar so modelirali s sistemom diferenčnih enačb. Skupina raziskovalcev pod vodstvom Colemana, [2], pa je razvila model v obliki diferencialnih enačb. Obstaja mnogo vrst družbenih interakcij, konflikti so le ena od njih. V članku izhajamo iz definicije, ki opredeljuje konflikt kot destruktivno neuglašeno zvezo med dvema akterjema. Glede na to definicijo postavimo model konflikta v skladu s Colemanovim pristopom najprej v obliki sistema diferencialnih enačb, ki ga rešujemo s pomočjo grafičnega pristopa sistemske dinamike. Rezultate lahko uporabimo na širokem področju upravljanja sistemov. Vsi izsledki, relacije in rezultati veljajo tudi za področje upravljanja energetskega sistema. Na koncu članka je dodan numerični primer, ki ilustrira teoretično podlago modela.
Prenosi
Literatura
Gottman, J. M., Murray, J. D., Swanson, C. C., Tayson, R., Swanson, K. R. (2005). The Mathematics of Marriage. Cambridge: MIT Press. Journal of Family Psychology, 13(1), pp. 3–19.
Coleman, P. T., Vallacher, R., Nowak, A., & Bui-Wrzosinska, L. (2006). Intractable Conflict as an Attractor: Presenting a Dynamical Model of Conflict, Escalation, and Intractability. American Behavioral Scientist.
Deutsch, M. (1973). The resolution of Conflict: and Destructive Processes. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Deutsch, M. (2006). Corporation and Competition. In The Handbook of Conflict: Theory and Practice. Deutsch M., Colman P.T. & Marcus E. C. as editors. John Wiley Press, pp.23–42.
Richardson, L. F. (1967). Arms and Insecurity. Chicago: Quadrangle.
Pruitt D. G. (1969). Stability and sudden change in interpersonal and international affairs. Journal of Conflict Resolution 13, pp.1838.
Pruitt D. G. (2006). A graphical Interpretation of Escalation and De-escalation. Presented at Dynamics and Complexity of Intractable Conflicts. Kamimierz, Poland, pp. 19–22.
Rubin, J. Z., Pruit D. G., & Kim S. H. (1994). Social Conflict Escalation, Stalemate and settlement. McGraw Hill.
Pruitt D. G., Kim (2004). Social Conflict Escalation, Stalemate, and Settlement. McGraw Hill.
Coleman, P. T. (2000). Fostering ripeness in seemingly intractable conflict: An experimental study. International Journal of Conflict Management, 11(4), pp. 300–317.
Deutsch, M. (2005). Cooperation and Conflict: A personal perspective on the history of the social psychological study of Conflict resolution. In The Essentials of Team working: International Perspectives, Edited by West, M. A., and all, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., pp. 1–36.
Vallacher, R.R., & Nowak, A. (2005). Dynamical social psychology: finding order in the flow of human experiences. In A.W. Kruglanski & E.T. Higgins (Eds.), Social Psychology: Handbook of Basic Principles. New York: Guilford Publications.
Gottman, J., Swanson, C., & Murray (1999). The Mathematics of Marital, Conflict: Dynamic Mathematical Nonlinear Modeling of Newlywed Marital Interaction.
Liebovitch, L. S., Naudot, V., Vallacher, R. A. Nowak, A., Bui-Wrzosinska, L., Coleman, P.T. (2008). Dynamics of two-actor cooperation-competition conflict models. Physica A doi:10.1016/j.physa.2008.07.020.
Robbins, S. P. (2005). Organizational Behavior. New Jersey Pearson Education Inc.
Kreyszig E (2011). Advanced Engineering Mathematics. John Wiley & Sons. Inc. 10 TH edition.
Usenik, J. (2009). Mathematical model of the power supply system control. Journal of Energy Technology, Aug. 2009, vol. 2, iss. 3, pp. 29–46.
Usenik, J., Repnik, M. (2012). System control in conditions of discrete stochastic input process, Journal of energy technology, Feb. 2012, vol. 5, iss. 1, pp.37–53.
Forrester J. W. (1968). Principle of Systems (1980); 2nd. Preliminary Edition; MIT Press.
Sterman J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World; Irwin McGraw-Hill.
Bossel, H. (2004). Systeme Dynamik Simulation Modellbildung, Analyse und Simulation komplexer Systeme. Books on Demand GmbH, Norderstedt.
Liu, S. (2007). Three Essays on Travel Demand Management Strategies for Traffic Congestion Mitigation. Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Industrial & Systems Engineering.
Liu, S, Triantis, K. P., & Sarangi, S., (2011). Representing Qualitative Variables and Their Interactions With Fuzzy Logic in System Dynamics Modeling. Systems Research and Behavioral Science Syst. Res. Published online in Wiley Online Library Research Paper, pp.245–263.
Usenik, J., Turnšek, T. (2013). Modeling Conflict Dynamics With Fuzzy Logic Inference, Journal of US-China Public Administration 10 (5).
