Tourism Demand in Tunisia: A VECM Approach
Ključne besede:
turistična industrija, turistično povpraševanje, VECM, kointegracija, TunizijaPovzetek
Namen te raziskave je bil preučiti determinante turističnega povpraševanja v Tuniziji od leta 1995 do leta 2019 s štirimi neodvisnimi spremenljivkami: bruto domačim proizvodom, indeksom cen življenjskih potrebščin, realnim menjalnim tečajem in številom prepeljanih potnikov v zračnem prometu. V raziskavi so bili uporabljeni testi enotskih korenov, kointegracijski test in model vektorske korekcije napak (VECM) za preučitev dinamike kratkoročnih in dolgoročnih razmerij med spremenljivkami. Rezultati kažejo, da med spremenljivkami obstajajo kointegracijski odnosi; vse neodvisne spremenljivke negativno vplivajo na turistično povpraševanje, razen letalskega prevoza. Glede na dobljene rezultate bi se morali oblikovalci politik zavedati negativnega vpliva politične nestabilnosti države na obseg zunanjega turističnega povpraševanja. V tem smislu mora vlada ponovno vzpostaviti politično stabilnost, da bi turiste spodbudila k obisku Tunizije. Prihodnje študije bi morale upoštevati dejavnike, kot so trgovinska odprtost gospodarstva in cene nafte.
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