A Study of Key Factors For Energy Policy Modelling
Ključne besede:
energija, obnovljivi viri energije, modeliranje razvoja energetske politike, Slovenija, potenciali obnovljivih virov energijePovzetek
Okoljski problemi in visoka uvozna odvisnost od fosilnih goriv so ključni problemi energetike Evropske unije (EU), zato se je EU med drugim zavezala k povečanju deleža energije iz obnovljivih virov (OVE) na 20 % do leta 2020. Pri tem je posebej problematično izvajanje ukrepov za doseganje teh ciljev, zato smo proučili energetske modele, ki vključujejo tudi delež obnovljivih virov. Energetski modeli so zaradi specifičnosti le omejeno uporabni, zato smo razvili splošnejši model, osredotočen tudi na izvajanje ukrepov za doseganje ciljev energetske politike. Za razvoj trajnostne energetike, z višjim deležem OVE, smo identificirali ključne dejavnike za modeliranje prehoda v trajnostno energetiko. Izvedli smo primerjalno analizo energetske statistike Slovenije, EU in sveta, proučili mešanico energetskih virov, ocenili potenciale OVE in prihodnje povpraševanje po energiji v Sloveniji ter ocenili njuno skladnost. Na tej osnovi smo razvili dva pristopa k modeliranju energetike.
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