Convergence of Business Cycles as A Confirmation of Oca Theory
Ključne besede:
konvergenca, konjunkturni cikli, valčki, multiresolucijska analizaPovzetek
V članku so obravnavani konjunkturni cikli in še posebej njihova konvergenca v evrskem območju, kakor to predpostavlja teorija optimalnega valutnega področja (OCA). Uporabljena je bila multiresolucijska dekompozija časovnih vrst BDP, za pridobitev numeričnih vrednosti sinhronizacije konjukturnih ciklov pa so bili izračunani korelacijski koeficienti dekomponiranih časovnih vrst. Rezultati kažejo, da območje evra v marsičem potrjuje teorijo OCA, hkrati pa tudi opozarjajo, da utegnejo imeti nove članice EU težave, če se odločijo prezgodaj pridružiti evrskem območju.
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