An Analysis of Interaction Effects of China–South Korea and China– Australia FTAs and the Expanding TPP
Ključne besede:
sporazum o prosti trgovini med Kitajsko in Južno Korejo, sporazum o prosti trgovini med Kitajsko in Avstralijo, transpacifiški sporazum o partnerstvu, interakcijski učinkiPovzetek
Transpacifiškemu sporazumu o partnerstvu, ki je bil sklenjen 5. oktobra 2015, se je že pridružilo 12 držav. Ker Kitajska k sporazumu ni pristopila, je bilo veliko raziskav osredotočenih na negativne učinke na kitajsko zunanjo trgovino po sklenitvi tega sporazuma. Po drugi strani si Kitajska prizadeva, da bi omogočila svoj razvoj z bilateralnim sporazumom o prosti trgovini in z območji proste trgovine. Junija 2015 je Kitajska podpisala bilateralna sporazuma z Južno Korejo in Avstralijo; veljati sta začela decembra 2015. Pojavila so se številna vprašanja: Ker sta Južna Koreja in Avstralija glavni trgovinski partnerici na pacifiškem območju in ker bosta bilateralna sporazuma o prosti trgovini učinkovita še pred transpacifiškim sporazumom o partnerstvu, ali bodo pozitivni učinki sporazumov o prostem trgovanju nadomestili nekatere negativne učinke transpacifiškega sporazuma o partnerstvu? Katere države bodo imele korist od tega, da bi Kitajska in Združene države Amerike privzele tekmovalno trgovinsko politiko? Kako bi se spremenili tržna vrednost in ekonomska blaginja, če bi Kitajska in ZDA privzele sodelovalno trgovinsko politiko? V prispevku simuliramo in analiziramo vzajemne učinke sporazumov o prosti trgovini med Kitajsko in Južno Korejo ter Kitajsko in Avstralijo ter razširjenega transpacifiškega sporazuma o partnerstvu z uporabo izračunljivega modela splošnega ravnovesja. Glavne ugotovitve so: sporazuma o prosti trgovini med Kitajsko in Južno Korejo ter Kitajsko in Avstralijo bosta značilno nadomestila negativne učinke transpacifiškega sporazuma o partnerstvu na kitajsko zunanjo trgovino. Če Kitajska ne bo vključena, bo ekonomska korist transpacifiškega sporazuma o partnerstvu za ZDA omejena. Ekonomska blaginja za državo, kot je Avstralija, se bo s pridružitvijo tako bilateralnemu sporazumu o prosti trgovini kot transpacifiškemu sporazumu o partnerstvu najbolj povečala. Na dolgi rok bo odločitev Kitajske, da se pridruži transpacifiškemu sporazumu o partnerstvu, za njene nacionalne interese prinesla največ koristi.
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