Estimation of Government Spending Multiplier in EU Economies

Avtorji

  • Marko Senekovič ,
  • Alenka Kavkler ,
  • Jani Bekő ,

Ključne besede:

karakteristike držav, fiskalni multiplikator, panelni VAR

Povzetek

Namen tega članka je oceniti multiplikator vladne potrošnje na panelu držav EU in preveriti vpliv izbranih karakteristik držav na višino fiskalnega multiplikatorja. Na vzorcu 28 držav EU, ki zaobjema obdobje 1995-2017, apliciramo panelni VAR model, pri čemer sledimo Ilzetzkiju idr. (2013). Ugotavljamo, da je ocenjen povprečni multiplikator vladne potrošnje večji od ena in da je fiskalni multiplikator višji v primeru nižje ravni javne zadolženosti, v bolj razvitih državah in v finančno bolj odprtih gospodarstvih. Učinek trgovinske odprtosti držav na višino fiskalnega multiplikatorja je nejasen. Prav tako ugotavljamo pozitivno odvisnost višine multiplikatorja vladne potrošnje od članstva držav v evropskih integracijah. Na podlagi rezultatov lahko sklepamo, da je za nosilce fiskalne politike smiselna selektivna uporaba fiskalnih spodbud pri uravnavanju kratkoročne gospodarske aktivnosti. Naš članek ažurira obstoječo empirično literaturo in oceni vpliv dodatnih, manj raziskanih karakteristik držav na velikost fiskalnega multiplikatorja

Biografije avtorja

  • Marko Senekovič, ,

    University of Maribor, Faculty of Economics and Business, Slovenija
    E-pošta: marko.senekovic1@um.si

    Marko Senekovič is an assistant at the department of political economy, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Maribor. He cooperates in the teaching process in undergraduate courses for principles of economics, microeconomics, theory of markets and prices, macroeconomics, open economy macroeconomics, and development of economic theory. He is a doctoral student at the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Maribor. His research is primarily focused on fiscal policy modelling and economic theory.

  • Alenka Kavkler, ,

    University of Maribor, Faculty of Economics and Business, Slovenija
    E-pošta: alenka.kavkler@um.si

    Alenka Kavkler, PhD, is an associate professor of quantitative methods in business science at the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Maribor. She received her M.Sc. in mathematics from University of Ljubljana and her PhD from Vienna University of Technology. Her research is mainly focused on nonlinear econometric models, especially smooth transition regression models. She is currently the head of the Institute of Operations Research at the Faculty of Economics and Business.

  • Jani Bekő, ,

    University of Maribor, Faculty of Economics and Business, Slovenija
    E-pošta: jani.beko@um.si

    Jani Bekő, PhD, is full professor of economic theory and applied economics at the Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Maribor, and head of the department of political economy. He teaches undergraduate and postgraduate courses on microeconomics, the theory of markets and prices, macroeconomics, international economics, and the development of economic theory. He is an active researcher within the research program entitled “Adjustment of the Slovenian Economy and Development Identity of Slovenia in EU.” His bibliography is comprised of more than 250 entries.

Literatura

Abrigo, M. R. M., & Love, I. (2016). Estimation of panel vector autoregression in stata: A package of programs. University of Hawaii Working Paper No. 16/2, University of Hawaii, Hawaii.

Auerbach, A. J., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2010). Measuring the output responses to fiscal policy. NBER Working Paper No. 16311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.3386/w16311

Auerbach, A. J., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2011). Fiscal multipliers in recession and expansion. NBER Working Paper No. 17447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.3386/w17447

Auerbach, A. J., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2014). Fiscal multipliers in Japan. NBER Working Paper No. 19911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.3386/w19911

Batini, N., Callegari, G., & Melina, G. (2012). Successful austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan. IMF Working Paper No. 12/190, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

Blanchard, O., & Perotti, R. (1999). An empirical characterization of the dynamic effects of changes in government spending and taxes on output. NBER Working Paper No. 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.3386/w7269

Blinder, A. S., Ehrmann, M., de Haan, J., & Jansen, D. J. (2016). Necessity as the mother of invention: Monetary policy after the crisis. NBE Working Paper No. 22735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.3386/w22735

Borsi, T. M. (2018). Fiscal multipliers across the credit cycle. Journal of Macroeconomics, 56, 135–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.01.004

Burriel, P., de Castro, F., Garrote, D., Gordo, E., Paredes, J., & Pérez, J. J. (2009). Fiscal policy shocks in the Euro Area and the US. An empirical assessment. ECB Working paper No. 1133, European Central Bank, Frankfurt.

CEPR (2017). Euro area business cycle dating committee: A slow but steady Euro Area recovery. Centre for Economic Policy Research. Retrieved from https://cepr.org/sites/default/files/EABCDC-Findings-August-2017.pdf.

Chinn, M. D., & Ito, H. (2006). What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions and interactions. Journal of Development Economics, 81(1), 163–192. Retrieved from http://web.pdx.edu/~ito/Chinn-Ito_website.htm. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2005.05.010

Combes, J., Minea, A., Mustea, L., & Yogo, T. (2016). Output effect of fiscal stimulus in central and eastern European countries. Post-Com- munist Economies, 28(1), 108–127. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2015.1124559

Darvas, Z. (2019). Real effective exchange rate for 178 countries: A new database. Retrieved from http://bruegel.org/publications/datasets/real-effective-exchange-rates-for-178-countries-a-new-database/.

Deskar-Škrbić, M., Šimović, H., & Buljan, A. (2017). Fiscal multiplier determinants in the CESEE region. Journal of Management and Financial Sciences, 10(29), 11–26.

Devereux, M. B. (2018). International Fiscal Spillovers: A Review Essay. The Korean Economic Review, 34(1), 29–50.

Eurostat (2019). Government Deficit and Debt. Retrieved from http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=gov_10dd_edpt1&lang=en.

Giordano, R., Momigliano, S., Neri, S., & Perotti, R. (2007). The effects of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model. European Journal of Political Economy, 23(3), 707–733. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2006.10.005

Hory, M.-P. (2016). Fiscal multipliers in emerging market economies: Can we learn something from advanced economies? International Economics, 146, August, 59–84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2015.11.002

Ilzetzki, E., Mendoza, E. G., & Végh, C. A. (2013). How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers? Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(2), 239–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.10.011

Jackson, L. E., Owyang, M. T., & Zubairy, S. (2018). Debt and stabilization policy: Evidence from a Euro Area FAVAR. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 93, 67–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2018.02.001

Koh, W. C. (2017). Fiscal multipliers: New evidence from a large panel of countries. Oxford Economic Papers, 69(3), 569–590.

Miyamoto, W., Nguyen, T. L., & Sergeyev, D. (2018). Government spending multipliers under the zero lower bound: Evidence from Japan. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 10(3), 247–277. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170131

Perotti, R. (2002). Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries. ECB Working Paper No. 168, European Central Bank, Frankfurt.

Ramey, V. A. (2019). Ten years after financial crisis: What have we learned from the renaissance in fiscal research? NBER Working Paper No. 25531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge.

Ramey, V. A., & Zubairy, S. (2014). Government spending multipliers in good times and in bad: Evidence from U.S. historical data. NBER Working Paper No. 20719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge.

Riera-Crichton, D., Vegh, C. A., & Vuletin, G. (2015). Procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 52, 15–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.11.011

Silva, R., Carvalho, V. M., & Ribeiro, A. P. (2013). How large are fiscal multipliers? A panel-data VAR approach for the Euro Area. FEP Working Papers No. 500, University of Porto, Porto.

Warmedinger, T., Checherita-Westphal, C., & Hernandez de Cos, P. (2015). Fiscal multipliers and beyond. ECB Working Paper No. 162, European Central Bank, Frankfurt.

World Bank (2019). World Development Indicators. Retrieved from http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world-development-indicators.

Prenosi

Objavljeno

18.01.2019

Številka

Letn. 65 Št. 1 (2019): Naše gospodarstvo / Our economy

Rubrika

Articles

Kako citirati

Senekovič, M., Kavkler, A., & Bekő, J. (2019). Estimation of Government Spending Multiplier in EU Economies. Naše Gospodarstvo Our Economy, 65(1), 16-29. https://old.journals.um.si/index.php/oe/article/view/2161