Is There Asymmetry in the Relationship Between Government Consumption Dynamics and Economic Activity? Evidence From G7 Economies
Ključne besede:
fiskalna politika, nelinearni ARDL model, države G7Povzetek
V tem članku preverjamo prisotnost kratkoročne in dolgoročne asimetrije v razmerju med državno potrošnjo in ekonomsko aktivnostjo na osnovi četrtletnega podatkovnega niza za države iz skupine G7 z uporabo nelinearnega ARDL modela. Glavni namen te raziskave je analizirati razmerje med državno potrošnjo in ekonomsko aktivnostjo v dveh ločenih scenarijih, prvič, v obdobjih, ko se državna potrošnja povečuje, in drugič, v obdobjih, ko se državna potrošnja zmanjšuje. Naše ključne ugotovitve so, prvič, linearni model prepoznava pozitivno razmerje med državno potrošnjo in ekonomsko aktivnostjo, drugič, v nelinearnem modelu je več kot polovica kratkoročnih in dolgoročnih koeficientov statistično značilnih, tretjič, kratkoročna in dolgoročna asimetrija je bila ocenjena v štirih primerih od skupno sedmih, s tem da lahko na osnovi grafične analize sklepamo o prisotnosti kratkoročne asimetrije tudi v preostalih treh primerih. In nazadnje, ugotovljena je negativno usmerjena kratkoročna asimetrija. Rezultati tako kažejo na močnejši odziv outputa v obdobjih, ko vladna potrošnja upada. Nadaljnje raziskovanje je smiselno usmeriti na širitev vzorca držav vključenih v analizo in na razširitev modela z dodatnimi spremenljivkami.
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