(De)Globalisation and the New Industrial Policy
Keywords:
World economy, Industrial policy, Globalisation, DeglobalisationAbstract
The processes of economic and political cooperation since the Second World War have stimulated economic growth and improved living standards and prosperity, while intensified economic integration and contributed to a better response to global challenges. Following the 2008 global financial crisis, there is a trend towards deglobalisation or slowbalisation. The article provides a comprehensive literature review and examines data sources on the situation and trends related to the globalisation of the world economy and the rise of industrial policy measures in advanced economies. It was found that the world economy is facing several challenges, including the reshaping of global supply chains, mitigating the effects of economic inequality and climate change, and the rise of economic populism and nationalism. This article consequently provides a comprehensive overview of the literature on globalisation and industrial policy, examining the interplay between deglobalisation processes and industrial policy measures and their increasing prominence in advanced economies.
References
Acemoglu, D., Naidu, S., Restrepo, P., & Robinson, J. (2019). Democracy Does Cause Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 127(1), 47–100. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/700936
Aiginger, K., & Rodrik, D. (2020). Rebirth of Industrial Policy and an Agenda for the Twenty-First Century. Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, 20, 189–207. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10842-019-00322-3
Aiyar, S., Chen, J., Ebeke, C., Garcia Saltos, R., Gudmundsson, T., Ilyina, A., Kangur, A., Kunaratskul, T., Rodriguez, S., Ruta, M., Schulze, T., Soderberg, G., Trevino, J. P. (2023). Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism. IMF
Staff Discussion Note No. SDN/2023/001. International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/SDN/2023/English/SDNEA2023001.ashx
Alfaro, L., & Chor, D. (2023). Global Supply Chains: The Looming "Great Reallocation". (NBER Working Paper No. 31661). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w31661
Andreoni, A., & Chang, H.-J. (2019). The Political Economy of Industrial Policy: Structural Interdependencies, Policy Alignment and Conflict Management. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 48, 136–150. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2018.10.007
Appelt, S., Bajgar, M., Criscuolo, C., & Galindo Rueda, F. (2023). The Impact of R&D Tax Incentives: Results from the OECD MicroBeRD+ Project (OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Paper No. 159). OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/1937ac6b-en
Artecona, R., & Velloso, H. (2022). Towards a New Industrial Policy: The United States Economic Policy Agenda Post-COVID-19. Studies and Perspectives – ECLAC Office in Washington, No. 22. United Nations, Santiago. Retrieved from https://repositorio.cepal.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/f600857c-1e0d-4b1b-b821-d59b94c6b35d/content
Axel, D. (2006). Does Globalization Affect Growth? Evidence from a New Index of Globalization. Applied Economics, 38(10), 1091–1110. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500392078
Baek, I., Noh, S., & Ahn, J. (2023). Does Income Inequality Move Together Across the World? Applied Economics Letters, 31(13), 1195–1200. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2023.2177589
Balaam, D., & Dillman, B. (2019). Introduction to International Political Economy (7th ed.). New York/Abingdon: Routledge.
Baldwin, R., Freeman, R., & Theodorakopoulos, A. (2024). Deconstructing Deglobalization: The Future of Trade Is in Intermediate Services. Asian Economic Policy Review, 19, 18–37. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/aepr.12440
Bank for International Settlements. (2018). Globalisation and Deglobalisation. BIS Paper No. 100. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Retrieved from https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap100.pdf
Barattieri, A., Cacciatore, M., & Ghironi, F. (2021). Protectionism and the Business Cycle. Journal of International Economics, 129, 1–21. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103417
Berg, A., Ostry, J. D., Tsangarides, C. G., & Yakhshilikov, Y. (2018). Redistribution, Inequality, and Growth: New Evidence. Journal of Economic Growth, 23, 259–305. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-017-9150-2
Berisha, E., Dubey, R., & Gharehgozli, O. (2023). Inflation and Income Inequality: Does the Level of Income Inequality Matter? Applied Economics, 55(37), 4319–4330. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2022.2128293
Bloom, N., Van Reenen, J., & Williams, H. (2019). A Toolkit of Policies to Promote Innovation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(3), 163–184. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.3.163
Bown, C. (2024). Trade Policy, Industrial Policy, and the Economic Security of the European Union. (Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper No. 24-2). Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4834530
Breckenfelder, J., Mackowiak, B., Marques, D., Olovsson, C., Popov, A., Porcellacchia, D., & Schepens, G. (2023). The Climate and the Economy (ECB Working Paper No. 2793. ECB, Frankfurt). Retrieved from https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2793~7969efec4f.en.pdf
Brue, S., & Grant, R. (2013). The Evolution of Economic Thought (8th ed.). South-Western: Cengage Learning.
Campos, R., Estefania Flores, J., Furceri, D., & Timini, J. (2023). Geopolitical Fragmentation and Trade. Journal of Comparative Economics, 51(4), 1289–1315. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.06.008
Cappariello, R., Gunnella, V., Franco Bedoya, S., & Ottaviano, G. (2020). Rising Protectionism and Global Value Chains: Quantifying the General Equilibrium Effects. ECB Working Paper No. 2360. ECB, Frankfurt. Retrieved from https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2360~0b2894ed2d.en.pdf
Choi, J., & Levchenko, A. (2024). The Long-Term Effects of Industrial Policy (NBER Working Paper No. 29263). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w29263
Clement, V., Rigaud, K., de Sherbinin, A., Jones, B., Adamo, S., Schewe, J., Sadiq, N., Shabahat, E. (2021). Groundswell Part 2: Acting on Internal Climate Migration. World Bank, Washington, D.C. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/36248
Criscuolo, C., Gonne, N., Kitazawa, K., & Lalanne, G. (2022). An Industrial Policy Framework for OECD Countries: Old Debates, New Perspectives. OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Paper No. 127. OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/0002217c-en
Dadush, U. (2022). Deglobalisation and Protectionism (Bruegel Working Paper No. 18/2022). Bruegel. Retrieved from https://www.bruegel.org/working-paper/deglobalisation-and-protectionism
Darvas, Z. (2023). The European Union’s Remarkable Growth Performance Relative to the United States. Bruegel. Retrieved from https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/european-unions-remarkable-growth-performance-relative-united-states
Dechezleprêtre, A., Einiö, E., Martin, R., Nguyen, K.-T., & Van Reenen, J. (2016). Do Tax Incentives for Research Increase Firm Innovation? An RD Design for R&D. (NBER Working Paper No. 22405). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w22405
Di Carlo, D., & Schmitz, L. (2023). Europe First? The Rise of EU Industrial Policy: Promoting and Protecting the Single Market. Journal of European Public Policy, 30(10), 2063–2096. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2023.2202684
DiPippo, G., Mazzocco, I., & Kennedy, S. (2022). Red Ink: Estimating Chinese Industrial Policy Spending in Comparative Perspective. Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, D.C. Retrieved from https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/220523_DiPippo_Red_Ink.pdf?VersionId=LH8ILLKWz4o.bjrwNS7csuX_C04FyEre
European Commission. (2024). European Industrial Strategy. European Commission. Retrieved from https://single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu/industry/strategy_en
Evenett, S., Jakubik, A., Martín, F., & Ruta, M. (2024). The Return of Industrial Policy in Data. (IMF Working Paper No. WP/24/1). International Monetary Fund. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400260964.001
Fajgelbaum, P., & Khandelwal, A. (2016). Measuring the Unequal Gains from Trade. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(3), 1113–1180. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw013
Fetzer, T., & Gold, R. (2019). What Drives Populist Votes? Recent Insights and Open Questions. (Forum for a New Economy Working Paper No. 1/2019). Retrieved from https://newforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/FNE-WP01.2019.pdf
Funke, M., Schularick, M., & Trebesch, C. (2023). Populist Leaders and the Economy. American Economic Review, 113(12), 3249–3288. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20202045
Furceri, D., Hannan, S., Ostry, J., & Rose, A. (2018). Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs. (NBER Working Paper No. 25402). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w25402
García Herrero, A. (2022). Slowbalisation in the Context of US-China Decoupling. Intereconomics, 57(6), 352–358. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-022-1086-x
García Herrero, A., & Schindowski, R. (2024). Unpacking China’s Industrial Policy and Its Implications for Europe (Bruegel Working Paper No. 11/2024). Bruegel. Retrieved from https://www.bruegel.org/system/files/2024-05/WP%2011%202024_4.pdf
Ghosh, J. (2022). Globalisation and Deglobalisation: The Impact and the Alternatives. Intereconomics, 57(6), 342–343. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-022-1083-0
Halmai, P. (2023). Globalisation Versus Deglobalisation. Financial and Economic Review, 22(2), 5–24. Retrieved from https://real.mtak.hu/168796/1/fer-22-2-ove1-halmai.pdf
Hanlon, W. (2020). The Persistent Effect of Temporary Input Cost Advantages in Shipbuilding, 1850 to 1911. Journal of the European Economic Association, 18(6), 3173–3209. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz067
Hausmann, R., & Rodrik, D. (2003). Economic Development as Self-Discovery. Journal of Development Economics, 72(2), 603–633. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(03)00124-X
Heimberger, P. (2022). Does Economic Globalisation Promote Economic Growth? A Meta-Analysis. The World Economy, 45(6), 1690–1712. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13235
IMF. (2023a). IMF Annual Report 2023. International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400238918.011
IMF. (2023b). World Economic Outlook: A Rocky Recovery. International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2023/April/English/text.ashx
International Energy Agency. (2024). World Energy Investment 2023: Overview and Key Findings. International Energy Agency. Retrieved from https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2023/overview-and-key-findings
Javorcik, B. S., Kitzmüller, L., Schweiger, H., & Yıldırım, M. A. (2023). Economic Costs of Friendshoring. The World Economy, 47(7), 2871–2908. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13555
Juhász, R., Lane, N., Oehlsen, E., & Pérez, V. (2022). The Who, What, When, and How of Industrial Policy: A Text-Based Approach. Center for Open Science. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/uyxh9
Juhász, R., Squicciarini, M., & Voigtl, N. (2023). Technology Adoption and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Industrialization in France. (NBER Working Paper No. 27503). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w27503
Juhász, R., Lane, N., & Rodrik, D. (2024). The New Economics of Industrial Policy. Annual Review of Economics, 16, 213–242. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-081023-024638
Kebalo, L., & Zouri, S. (2024). Income Inequality in Developing Countries: Fiscal Policy’s Role amid Uncertainty. Journal of Applied Economics, 27(1), 1–23. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2024.2316969
Kleinfeld, R. (2023). How Does Business Fare Under Populism? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C. Retrieved from https://carnegie-production-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/static/files/Kleinfeld_Populism-v3.pdf
KOF Swiss Economic Institute. (2024). KOF Globalisation Index. ETH Zürich. Retrieved from https://kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/indicators/kof-globalisation-index.html
Kostadinova, T. (2024). Do Populist Governments Reduce Corruption? East European Politics, 40(1), 64–85. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2023.2185226
Lane, N. (2024). Manufacturing Revolutions: Industrial Policy and Industrialization in South Korea. ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, Kiel/Hamburg. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/6tqax
Lang, V., & Tavares, M. (2024). The Global Distribution of Gains from Globalization. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 22, 357–381. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10888-023-09593-7
Laplane, A., & Mazzucato, M. (2020). Socializing the Risks and Rewards of Public Investments: Economic, Policy, and Legal Issues. Research Policy, 49(S), 1–11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.repolx.2020.100008
Lawrence, R., & Weinstein, D. (1999). Trade and Growth: Import-Led or Export-Led? Evidence from Japan and Korea (NBER Working Paper No. 7264). National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w7264
Lee, J.-W. (1996). Government Interventions and Productivity Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1(3), 391–414. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00141045
Malla, M., & Pathranarakul, P. (2022). Fiscal Policy and Income Inequality: The Critical Role of Institutional Capacity. Economies, 10(5), 1–16. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10050115
Malorgio, A., Teti, E., & Dallocchio, M. (2021). Green Bonds: The Evolution of a Sustainable Financial Instrument on the Cutting Edge. International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, 15(1–2), 95–135. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/101.00000134
Mansfield, E., & Pevehouse, J. (2022). Nationalism, Populism, and Trade Agreements. International Studies Review, 24(2), 1–15. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viac016
Mazzucato, M. (2018). Mission-Oriented Innovation Policies: Challenges and Opportunities. Industrial and Corporate Change, 27(5), 803–815. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dty034
Millot, V., & Rawdanowicz, Ł. (2024). The Return of Industrial Policies: Policy Considerations in the Current Context. (OECD Economic Policy Paper No. 34). OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/051ce36d-en
Newman, R., & Noy, I. (2023). The Global Costs of Extreme Weather That Are Attributable to Climate Change. Nature Communications, 14, 1–13. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41888-1
Osborn Krueger, A., & Tuncer, B. (1982). An Empirical Test of the Infant Industry Argument. American Economic Review, 72(5), 1142–1152. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/1812029
Potrafke, N. (2015). The Evidence on Globalisation. The World Economy, 38(3), 509–552. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12174
Rees, D., & Rungcharoenkitkul, P. (2021). Bottlenecks: Causes and Macroeconomic Implications. BIS Bulletin No. 48. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Retrieved from https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull48.htm
Reynolds, E. (2024). U.S. Industrial Transformation and the “How” of 21st Century Industrial Strategy. Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, 24(8), 1–17. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10842-024-00420-x
Rodrik, D. (2009). Industrial Policy: Don't Ask Why, Ask How. Middle East Development Journal, 1(1), 1–29. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793812009000024
Rodrik, D. (2011). The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy. New York/London: W. W. Norton.
Sandkamp, A. (2022). Reshoring by Decree? The Effects of Decoupling Europe from Global Value Chains. Intereconomics, 57(6), 359–362. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-022-1087-9
Shin, I. (2012). Income Inequality and Economic Growth. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2049–2057. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.011
Statista. (2024). Renewable Energy Investments Worldwide – Statistics & Facts. Statista. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/topics/10992/global-renewable-energy-investments/#statisticChapter
Terzi, A., Sherwood, M., & Singh, A. (2023). European Industrial Policy for the Green and Digital Revolution. Science and Public Policy, 50(5), 842–857. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scad018
The Economist. (2024a). What Donald Trump’s Return Means for Energy Policy. The Economist. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2024/11/20/what-donald-trumps-return-means-for-energy-policy
The Economist. (2024b). How Far Do Kamala Harris and Donald Trump Differ on Policy? The Economist. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2024/10/11/how-far-do-kamala-harris-and-donald-trump-differ-on-policy
The Economist. (2024c). Will the Trouble Ever End for Volkswagen and Its Rivals? The Economist. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/business/2024/11/28/will-the-trouble-ever-end-for-volkswagen-and-its-rivals
Topuz, S. G. (2022). The Relationship Between Income Inequality and Economic Growth: Are Transmission Channels Effective? Social Indicators Research, 162, 1177–1231. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-022-02882-0
Waidelich, P., Batibeniz, F., Rising, J., Kikstra, J. S., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2024). Climate Damage Projections Beyond Annual Temperature. Nature Climate Change, 14, 592–599. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-01990-8
World Bank. (2024). World Development Indicators. World Bank. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
World Inequality Database. (2024). WID.World. World Inequality Database. Retrieved from https://wid.world/data/
WTO. (2023). Global Value Chain Development Report 2023: Resilient and Sustainable GVCs in Turbulent Times. World Trade Organization, Geneva. Retrieved from https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/gvc_dev_rep23_e.pdf
WTO. (2024). Thirty Years of Trade Growth and Poverty Reduction. Retrieved from WTO Data Blog: https://www.wto.org/english/blogs_e/data_blog_e/blog_dta_24apr24_e.htm
Zahoor, N., Wu, J., Khan, H., & Khan, Z. (2023). De-Globalization, International Trade Protectionism, and the Reconfigurations of Global Value Chains. Management International Review, 63, 823–859. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11575-023-00522-4
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Peter Vuk

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.