Tick-born encephalitis and climate change in Slovenia

Authors

  • Daša Donša , Department of biology, Faculty of natural sciences and mathematics, University of Maribor , Oddelek za biologijo, Fakulteta za naravoslovje in matematiko, Univerza v Mariboru https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0987-169X (unauthenticated)
  • Veno Jaša Grujić , Department of Elementary Education and Department of biology, Faculty of Education and Faculty of natural sciences and mathematics, University of Maribor , Oddelek za razredni pouk in Oddelek za biologijo, Pedagoška fakulteta in Fakulteta za naravoslovje in matematiko, Univerza v Mariboru
  • Nataša Pipenbaher , Department of Biology, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Maribor , Oddelek za biologijo, Fakulteta za naravoslovje in matematiko, Univerza v Mariboru https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1494-0194 (unauthenticated)
  • Danijel Ivajnšič , Department of biology and Department of Geography, Faculty of natural sciences and mathematics and Faculty of Arts, University of Maribor , Oddelek za biologijo in Oddelek za geografijo, Fakulteta za naravoslovje in matematiko in Filozofska fakulteta, Univerza v Mariboru https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4419-5295 (unauthenticated)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18690/rg.16.1.3220

Keywords:

Tick-borne diseases, risk assessment, climate change, spatial modelling

Abstract

Tick-born encephalitis and climate change in Slovenia
Ticks, as vectors of various infectious diseases, play an important role in endangering public health. Slovenia is one of the leading countries in terms of the registered incidence of tick-borne meningoencephalitis (TBE). TBE is transmitted by the castor bean tick species (Ixodes ricinus).Abundance and spatial distribution of this species is highly dependent on biotic and abiotic factors. As a result, the spatial footprint of TBE is also affected by climate change. With the application of regression tree and geographically weighted multiple regression models, including 246 predictor variables, we explain the existing (current climate conditions) and future (year 2070, according to RCP8.5 climate scenario)spatial pattern of TBE foci at the level of Slovenian municipalities. As a final product of the research, a current and future risk assessment for TBE infection on the grid of 1km2has been developed. Such results could be used as a supportive spatial information system for informing and preventing KME infection.

Author Biographies

  • Daša Donša, , Department of biology, Faculty of natural sciences and mathematics, University of Maribor , Oddelek za biologijo, Fakulteta za naravoslovje in matematiko, Univerza v Mariboru

    Department of biology, Faculty of natural sciences and mathematics, University of Maribor. E-mail: dasa.donsa1@um.si

  • Veno Jaša Grujić, , Department of Elementary Education and Department of biology, Faculty of Education and Faculty of natural sciences and mathematics, University of Maribor, Oddelek za razredni pouk in Oddelek za biologijo, Pedagoška fakulteta in Fakulteta za naravoslovje in matematiko, Univerza v Mariboru

    Department of Elementary Education and Department of biology, Faculty of Education and Faculty of natural sciences and mathematics, University of Maribor. E-mail: veno.grujic@um.si

  • Nataša Pipenbaher, , Department of Biology, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Maribor, Oddelek za biologijo, Fakulteta za naravoslovje in matematiko, Univerza v Mariboru

    Department of Biology, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Maribor. E-mail: natasa.pipenbaher@um.si

  • Danijel Ivajnšič, , Department of biology and Department of Geography, Faculty of natural sciences and mathematics and Faculty of Arts, University of Maribor , Oddelek za biologijo in Oddelek za geografijo, Fakulteta za naravoslovje in matematiko in Filozofska fakulteta, Univerza v Mariboru

    Department of biology and Department of Geography, Faculty of natural sciences and mathematics and Faculty of Arts, University of Maribor. E-mail: dani.ivajnsic@um.si

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Published

30.06.2021

Issue

Vol. 16 No. 1 (2021)

Section

Scientific Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2021 Daša Donša, Veno Jaša Grujić, Nataša Pipenbaher, Danijel Ivajnšič

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Donša, D. ., Grujić, V. J., Pipenbaher, N., & Ivajnšič, D. . (2021). Tick-born encephalitis and climate change in Slovenia. Journal for Geography, 16(1), 7-30. https://doi.org/10.18690/rg.16.1.3220